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Timo Meier has had a disappointing season by all metrics, but he has been mostly fantastic over the last 10 games, trying to keep this team afloat when it seems like so many want to just let it sink.

A few weeks ago, I listed a few forwards who I felt needed to step up if the New Jersey Devils were going to go on a run and nab one of the wild card spots. The number one person, of course, had to be Timo Meier. He had been vastly underperforming relative to the massive contract he signed in the offseason, and if the Devils were going to get any burst internally from the forward position, he could easily provide the biggest by simply starting to play like the star that he was signed to be

Since then, almost shockingly, he has managed to do just that. His last three weeks of hockey have been very good, much more indicative of the player the Devils have wanted all season long, and the one that is getting a cool $8.8 million a year. Since I posted that piece on February 24th, Meier is the points leader for this offense, with 14 points over the 10 games since that date, 11 of those points coming at 5 on 5 play. That is better than anyone else on the team. Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes are the only others who have at least 10 points over that stretch, but neither are even close in terms of 5 on 5 points, with Nico at 8 and Jack at 6 over that stretch

That goes to show just how productive he has been since then. At that time, he had 22 points through 43 games this season. Now, he is up to 36 points through 53 games. Obviously, that is still way underperforming for the entire season, but he is finally making serious progress.

Based on the numbers behind the scenes, the point totals over the last 10 games for Timo are slightly inflated, but not significantly so. At all strengths, his expected goals over this stretch has been 53.66%, but his actual goals for has been 59.38%. So he is getting a little luck, but these are numbers for all strengths, where power play can wreak havoc on analytics. At 5 on 5, where he has 11 of 14 points, and where analytical numbers are more relevant, his actual GF% is still slightly inflated when compared to xGF%, but it is less so than at all strengths. At 5 on 5, his xGF% over the last 10 games has been 58.29%, versus his actual GF% of 63.64%. So while a little regression is possibly in order, still, having an xGF% over 58% is fantastic and will still lead to lots of points over a full season

Plus, on the flip side, I think we could actually give Timo some extra praise for having actual numbers higher than his expected numbers. He is finishing and scoring at a time when the Devils really need him to, instead of just having the analytics to say he should be. For instance, Erik Haula actually leads all Devils forwards over the last 10 games with an xGF% of 59.02%. However, his actual goals for percentage has only been at 50% even, way lower. Despite playing a strong game, he is not finishing like Timo is, and when every game is like a playoff game right now, that is a problem. Timo, however, has held his own and then some